Berikut adalah data 11 tahun dari tahun 1986-2996. Tentukan nilai ramalan pada tahun 1997?
|
Tahun
|
1986
|
1987
|
1988
|
1989
|
1990
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995
|
1996
|
|
Yt
|
50
|
36.5
|
43
|
44.5
|
38.9
|
38.1
|
32.6
|
38.7
|
41.7
|
41.1
|
33.8
|
(sumber soal: Yulianto, M.Sc dalam modul riset operational STIS)
Masukkan data
- Masukkan datanya
- Statistic > Advanced Linier/Non Linier Model > Time series/forecasting
- Klik variable > Ok
Klik exponential smoothing and forecasting
Masukkan variabel Yt
Pada alpha: ketik 0,5
Klik summary exponential smooting
Berikut hasilnya:
Exponential smoothing: S0=38,82 (Spreadsheet1)
No trend,no season; Alpha= ,500 YT : Exp.smoothed
|
Error |
|
|
Mean error |
-0,1671164718235
|
|
Mean absolute error |
1,3005558641209
|
|
Sums of squares |
78,7352432116418
|
|
Mean square |
3,7492972957925
|
|
Mean percentage error |
-0,6146543117161
|
|
Mean abs. perc. error |
3,2724767774384
|
Exponential smoothing: S0=38,82 (Spreadsheet1)
No trend,no season; Alpha= ,500 YT : Exp.smoothed
|
YT |
Smoothed |
Resids |
|
|
2 |
44,95000
|
39,35935
|
5,59065
|
|
3 |
40,72500
|
42,15467
|
-1,42967
|
|
4 |
41,86250
|
41,43984
|
0,42266
|
|
5 |
43,18125
|
41,65117
|
1,53008
|
|
6 |
41,04062
|
42,41621
|
-1,37558
|
|
7 |
39,57031
|
41,72842
|
-2,15810
|
|
8 |
36,08516
|
40,64936
|
-4,56421
|
|
9 |
37,39258
|
38,36726
|
-0,97468
|
|
10 |
39,54629
|
37,87992
|
1,66637
|
|
11 |
40,32314
|
38,71310
|
1,61004
|
|
12 |
37,06157
|
39,51812
|
-2,45655
|
|
13 |
37,06157
|
38,28985
|
-1,22828
|
|
14 |
37,06157
|
37,67571
|
-0,61414
|
|
15 |
37,06157
|
37,36864
|
-0,30707
|
|
16 |
37,06157
|
37,21511
|
-0,15353
|
|
17 |
37,06157
|
37,13834
|
-0,07677
|
|
18 |
37,06157
|
37,09996
|
-0,03838
|
|
19 |
37,06157
|
37,08076
|
-0,01919
|
|
20 |
37,06157
|
37,07117
|
-0,00960
|
|
21 |
37,06157
|
37,06637
|
-0,00480
|
|
22 |
37,06397
|
Terlihat untuk forecasting periode berikutnya sebsar 37,06
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